Public Health Preparedness Plans for Avian influenza
A recently published report in the Annals of Internal Medicine examines the risk potentials for a mutant Influenza A virus (H5N!) and serious avian influenza pandemic. Of the 124 reported cases through May 2006, nearly all were acquired by direct contact with poultry. Going by the 1918-1919 avian influenza public health pandemic the mutant virus traversed the world in three months resulting in an estimated 50 million deaths. Are we prepared for this a repeat pandemic of this proportion? The answer is a clear no, in most part due to lack of effective medical countermeasures, limited medical surge capacity and healthcare infrastructure to diagnose, treat and monitor patients in such volume.
As of May 2006, more than 140 million potentially exposed domesticated birds were culled in 153 countries to limit spread of avian flu. The worst pandemic in recorded medical history was Spanish flu (H1N1) in 1918 and 1919. The last pandemic was Hong Kong flu (H3N2) 37 years ago in 1968 and 1969.
The H5N1 influenza virus could acquire property by mutational adaptation of the avian strain, as with the Spanish influenza, or by reassortment through dual infection with human and avian strains as occurred in 1957 (Asian influenza) and 1968 (Hong Kong influenza).